คนไทยวิกฤติ

Sun 17 Mar, 2019 18:41 / 2 years ago

คนไทยวิกฤติหนี้พุ่ง! เงินเก็บไม่พอ แนะออมเพิ่ม 35%

ธปท. เผยผลศึกษา พบ คนไทยยังห่วงหน้าตา ดันหนี้ครัวเรือนโตต่อเนื่อง ชี้! ชีวิตหลังเกษียณ เงินออมไม่พอยังชีพ โอกาสทำรายได้ลดลง เหตุโดนเทคโนโลยี หุ่นยนต์แย่งงาน หวั่น! ดอกเบี้ยขาขึ้น เงินเก็บหาย เหตุคนรายได้ตํ่ากว่าหมื่นบาทต้องจ่ายหนี้เกือบครึ่ง แนะออมเพิ่ม 35% ถ้าจะอยู่ต่อ 20 ปี

สำนักงานสถิติแห่งชาติรายงานหนี้ครัวเรือนไตรมาส 3 ปี 2561 พบว่า มีมูลค่า 12.55 ล้านล้านบาท เพิ่มขึ้นจาก 11.86 ล้านล้านบาท ในปี 2560 แต่สัดส่วนต่อผลิตภัณฑ์มวลรวมภายในประเทศ (จีดีพี) ลดลงจาก 78% เหลือ 77.8% แต่ก็ยังถือว่าเป็นความเปราะบางต่อเศรษฐกิจไทย เพราะเมื่อเทียบกับกลุ่มประเทศที่มีรายได้ใกล้เคียงกับไทยแล้ว ถือว่าเป็นสัดส่วนที่สูงมาก และกลายเป็นวิวาทะเดือดระหว่าง นายอภิศักดิ์ ตันติวรวงศ์ รัฐมนตรีว่าการกระทรวงการคลัง กับ นายวิรไท สันติประภพ ผู้ว่าการธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย (ธปท.)

ล่าสุด ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย (ธปท.) ออกบทวิจัยเรื่อง "หนี้ครัวเรือนไทย : ข้อเท็จจริงที่ได้จาก Bot Nielsen Household Financial Survey" ซึ่งเป็นผลศึกษาร่วมกับ บริษัท เดอะ นีลสัน คอมปะนี (ประเทศไทย) จำกัด โดย นายสราชื่น โชคสันต์, นายสุพริศร์ สุวรรณิก และนางสาวธนัชพร สุขสุเมฆ สำรวจศึกษาครัวเรือนตัวอย่าง 1,500 ครัวเรือนทั่วประเทศ ระหว่างเดือน ก.ค. - ส.ค. 2560

โครงการสำรวจแบ่งเป็น 2 กลุ่ม คือ กลุ่มครัวเรือนที่มีหนี้กับไม่มีหนี้ และกลุ่มครัวเรือนที่มีหนี้แล้วมีปัญหาทางการเงินกับกลุ่มที่มีหนี้แต่ไม่มีปัญหา โดยคุมปัจจัยต่าง ๆ ให้คงที่ เช่น รายได้สินทรัพย์ทางการเงิน จำนวนสมาชิกในครัวเรือน อาชีพหลักของสมาชิกในครัวเรือน เพื่อให้สามารถเปรียบเทียบระหว่างครัวเรือนกลุ่มต่าง ๆ ได้
 

ต่อข้อถามว่า ครัวเรือนที่มีหนี้ขาดวินัยทางการเงินจริงหรือไม่? ผลศึกษาพบว่า กลุ่มครัวเรือนที่มีหนี้ยังคงมีค่าใช้จ่ายสูงกว่า 8% โดยเฉลี่ยสูงกว่ากลุ่มครัวเรือนที่ไม่มีหนี้อย่างมีนัยสำคัญ ทั้งค่าใช้จ่ายประจำ เช่น ค่าโทรศัพท์สูงกว่า 135% ค่าใช้จ่ายในการเดินทางสูงกว่า 275% และค่าใช้จ่ายไม่ประจำ เช่น ค่าซ่อมรถสูงกว่า 631% สะท้อนการให้ความสำคัญกับความมีหน้ามีตาทางสังคมมากกว่า แสดงว่า ครัวเรือนที่มีหนี้มีรถยนต์ที่มีราคาสูงกว่าโดยเฉลี่ย

ส่วนในบรรดาครัวเรือนที่มีหนี้มีปัญหาทางการเงิน แตกต่างจากครัวเรือนที่ไม่มีปัญหาอย่างไร? ผลศึกษาพบว่า กลุ่มครัวเรือนที่มีปัญหาทางการเงิน ยังคงมีหนี้ค่าใช้จ่ายโดยเฉลี่ยสูงกว่า 18% ซึ่งสูงกว่ากลุ่มครัวเรือนที่ไม่มีปัญหาอย่างมีนัยสำคัญ โดยเฉพาะค่าใช้จ่ายประจำ เช่น เพื่อความบันเทิงสูงกว่า 376% ค่าซื้อเสื้อผ้าสูงกว่า 562% ซึ่งสะท้อนพฤติกรรมการใช้ชีวิต หรือ ไลฟ์สไตล์ ที่ค่อนไปทางสุรุ่ยสุร่ายกว่าอีกกลุ่ม นอกจากนั้น กลุ่มครัวเรือนที่มีปัญหามีแนวโน้มที่จะมีรสนิยม หรือ ต้องการมีหน้ามีตาทางสังคม สูงกว่า สะท้อนจากค่าซ่อมรถและค่าดูแลบ้านที่สูงกว่ากลุ่มที่ไม่มีปัญหา สูงกว่า 273% และ 276% ตามลำดับ และการมีสมาชิกในครัวเรือนล้มป่วย ส่งผลให้มีปัญหาค่ารักษาพยาบาลสูง 322% สูงกว่ากลุ่มที่ไม่มีปัญหา

นายเชาว์ เก่งชน กรรมการผู้จัดการ บริษัท ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทยเปิด เผยกับ "ฐานเศรษฐกิจ" ว่า แนวโน้มการออมของครัวเรือนช่วง 3 ปีที่ผ่านมา แม้ตัวเลขการออมส่วนบุคคลต่อรายได้พึงจับจ่ายใช้สอยจะเพิ่มขึ้น โดยปี 2558 อยู่ที่ 9% ปี 2559 เพิ่มเป็น 10.2% และปี 2560 อยู่ที่ 11.2% แต่ยังไม่เพียงพอต่อการยังชีพระยะยาว โดยเฉพาะการดำเนินชีวิตหลังเกษียณอายุ

ทั้งนี้ ปัจจัยเสี่ยงที่จะฉุดความสามารถในการออม เช่น คนที่มีหนี้จะต้องเจียดรายได้เพื่อชำระหนี้ และหากดอกเบี้ยที่จะปรับเพิ่มขึ้นในอนาคต ทำให้ความสามารถในการเก็บออมแต่ละเดือนหายไป

"ผมมองว่า ถ้าดอกเบี้ยเพิ่มขึ้นก็มีส่วนช่วยลดแรงจูงใจในการก่อหนี้ ซึ่งการทำนโยบายการเงินของ ธปท. พยายามดูเรื่องดอกเบี้ยและใช้ Macro Prudential ในบางจุด ส่วนแนวโน้มนโยบายการคลัง ควรให้แรงจูงใจคนออมเงิน เช่น การออมภาคบังคับ หรือ หักภาษี กรณีคนออมเงินในกองทุนสำรองเลี้ยงชีพ"

นายพชรพจน์ นันทรามาศ ผู้อำนวยการฝ่ายอาวุโส สายงาน Global Business Development and Strategy ธนาคารกรุงไทย กล่าวว่า แนวโน้มการออมในกลุ่มมนุษย์เงินเดือนบางอาชีพอาจทำได้ไม่มาก ทั้งค่าตอบแทนและค่าประสบการณ์อาจไม่เติบโตเหมือนที่ผ่านมา เพราะสภาพแวดล้อมที่เปลี่ยนไปตามพัฒนาการของเทคโนโลยี กรณีหุ่นยนต์ที่จะเข้ามาทำงานแทนคน ซึ่งมีผลให้อัตราเติบโตของรายได้ลดลง ไม่ว่าจะเป็น ลักษณะงานประจำ หรือ ไม่ใช่งานประจำ ทั้งใช้แรงงานและใช้ความคิด

"ผลศึกษาเกี่ยวกับการเติบโตของรายได้ของมนุษย์เงินเดือนและแนวโน้มการออมใน 10-20 ปีข้างหน้า อาจทำได้ไม่มาก ซึ่งถ้าเงินเดือนปรับเพิ่มไม่เป็นไปตามตั้งใจ หรือ เปอร์เซ็นต์การเติบโตของรายได้น้อยกว่าที่คาดไว้ คนกลุ่มนี้ต้องออมเงินเพิ่มขึ้น เพราะทุก ๆ 1% ของรายได้ที่หายไป ต้องออมเงินเพิ่ม 4% เพื่อให้สามารถดำรงชีพใน 20 ปีข้างหน้า หรือ ต้องออมถึง 35%"

นายสมประวิณ มันประเสริฐ ผู้ช่วยกรรมการผู้จัดการใหญ่ ธนาคารกรุงศรีอยุธยา กล่าวว่า แนวโน้มคนไทยจะอายุยืน แต่จะถูกลดทอนความสามารถในการออมด้วยภาระค่าใช้จ่ายแต่ละวัน บางรายต้องแบกภาระหนี้ โดยเฉพาะกลุ่มผู้มีรายได้ตํ่ากว่า 1 หมื่นบาทต่อเดือน ต้องจ่ายหนี้ถึง 41.8% ต่อเดือน หรือ กลุ่มรายได้ตํ่ากว่า 2 หมื่นบาทต่อเดือน ปัจจุบัน จ่ายหนี้ 26-27% ต่อเดือน ซึ่งทั้ง 2 กลุ่มนี้ ต้องระมัดระวัง ถ้าดอกเบี้ยปรับขึ้นโอกาสเก็บเงินออมยิ่งยากและอาจรับภาระดอกเบี้ยเพิ่มด้วย

 

 

ขอบคุณที่มาเนื้อหาข้อมูลจาก


3 comments
pan 2 years ago on Sun 17 Mar, 2019 20:03 / 2 years ago
S2M Silver Member

 

  คนไทยส่วนใหญ่จะเอาที่ไหนมาออมเพิ่ม เป็นไปไม่ได้เลย

เมื่อคนส่วนใหญ่ต่างเป็น ระดับรากหญ้า ถ้าแบ่งอย่างหยาบมีสองกลุ่ม

กลุ่มแรก เกษตรกร เกือบทั้งหมดหนี้สินล้นพ้นตัว และยังเพิ่มขึ้นเรื่อยทุกปี  ความจริงมันหนักหนากว่านี้มาก แต่ตัวเลขมันเพี้ยนเพราะถูกกดด้วยการพักชำระหนี้ ยกเว้นหนี้บางส่วน แปรสภาพ/โอนหนี้(refinance) .. (และโปรดอย่าตีขลุมมั่วว่า ทีชาวสวนทุเรียนทำไมฐานะดีขึ้น)

กลุ่มสอง กรรมกรผู้ใช้แรงงาน ข้อมูลเชิงประจักษ์ของทุกสถาบันสรุปพ้องกันว่า ค่าแรงปัจจุบันไม่พอเลี้ยงชีพ ..5ปีแล้วได้ขึ้นค่าแรงรวม5ปี  5-15บาท  ต้องคำนวณให้มั้ยว่าเพิ่มขึ้นกี่%ของ300บาท  ค่าครองชีพมันเพิ่มทุกปีๆละหลาย% 

ยกเว้นข้าราชการพลเรือนและมีสี บางปีเพิ่มเงินเดือนให้2ครั้ง ถ้าจำไม่ผิดเพิ่มสองครั้งในปีเดียวมีไม่น้อยกว่า2ปี!

 

... แปลกแต่จริง และไม่ใช่Ripley's  ผู้ใช้แรงงานตลอดห้าปีอ้อนวอนร้องขอแต่ได้ความเมตตาให้หลงจ้งรวม5ปีได้เพิ่มรวมทั้งสิ้นแค่ 5-15บาท  

ยิ่งตลกร้ายกว่า?!!  มีพรรคหนึ่งที่แข็งขืนไม่คยยอมให้  สองวันก่อนประกาศถ้าได้เป็นรัฐบาล(อีก)จะดันค่าแรงขึ้นเป็น 425/วัน >> นี่มันอะไรกัน(ฟะ)

.ใครรู้หรือพออธิบายให้คนเลี้ยงควายอย่างผมพอเข้าใจได้ จะกราบขอบพระคุณ/

maruferd 2 months ago on Thu 21 Oct, 2021 16:20 / 2 months ago


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