หุ้นรับเหมา

Sat 6 Jun, 2020 21:01 / 1 year ago

หุ้นรับเหมารายใหญ่ไม่ได้อานิสงส์ "เงินกู้ 4 แสนล้าน" เท่ารายเล็ก

"เคจีไอ" ชี้รับเหมารายใหญ่ไม่ได้อานิสงส์เท่ารายเล็กจากงบฟื้นฟูเศรษฐกิจ4แสนลบ.  มองภาพกลุ่มฯฟื้นตัวครึ่งปีหลัง จับตาประมูลโครงการรถไฟฟ้า MRT สายสีส้มตต. หาก CK ได้หนุนแบ็กล็อกเพิ่มสามเท่า แต่หาก STEC ได้เพิ่มเท่าตัว เลือก STEC หุ้นเด่น


จากการที่รัฐสภาไทยได้อนุมัติแพคเก็จกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ 1.9 ล้านล้านบาท เพื่อรับมือผลกระทบจากไวรัสโควิด 19 เมื่อวันที่ 1 มิถนายน 2563 จำนวนนี้มีงบสนับสนุนการฟื้นฟูเศรษฐกิจและสังคม 4 แสนล้านบาท ซึ่งรวมถึงการปรับปรุงโครงสร้างพื้นฐานภายในประเทศด้วย 

บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ (บล.) เคจีไอ (ประเทศไทย) เปิดเผยว่า คาดว่าทั้งผู้รับเหมารายใหญ่และผู้รับเหมางานเสาเข็มและฐานราก จะไม่ได้อานิสงส์จากงบก้อนนี้เพราะมุ่งไปที่โครงการขนาดเล็ก แต่ผู้รับเหมารายเล็กน่าจะได้อานิสงส์มากกว่า

จับตาโครงการรถไฟฟ้าสายสีส้มตะวันตก (งานโยธา ~9 หมื่นล้านบาท) 

เนื่องจากโครงการภาครัฐหลายโครงการถูกชะลอออกไปในช่างที่ C0VID-19 ระบาด เรามองว่าโครงการที่มีศักยภาพสูงที่สุดที่จะเดินหน้าเข้าสู่เฟสของการเปิดประมูลได้เร็ว มีแค่โครงการรถไฟฟ้าสายสีส้มตะวันตกเท่านั้น เพราะโครงการอื่น ๆ ยังต้องรอการอนุมัติ และมีการปรับรายละเอียคโครงการรวมถึงแนวทางการลงทุน ทั้งนี้คาดว่ามีสองกลุ่มที่จะเข้าแข่งประมูลโครงการนี้ ได้แก่ CK และ Bangkok Expressway and Metro (BEM.) กับ  BGSR consortium ซึ่งประกอบด้วย  BTS Group Holdings , Gulf Energy Development, STEC และ Ratch Group ร่วมกับ China Harbour Engineering   คาดว่าโครงการนี้จะออก TOR อย่างเป็นทางการได้ภายในเดือนนี้

นอกจากโครงการรถไฟฟ้าสายสีส้มตะวันตกแล้ว เรามองว่าอาจจะมีโครงการรถไฟทางคู่เฟสที่สองบางเส้นทางที่สามารถปิดประมูลแบบ e-bidding ได้ใน Q4/63 ซึ่งจากการตรวจสอบข้อมูลกับการรถไฟแห่งประเทศไทย (รฟท) ทำให้ทราบว่า TOR ของเส้นทาง (จิระ -อุบลและขอนแก่น -หนองคาย มูลค่า 642 หมื่นล้านบาท) เสร็จแล้วเละกำลังรอการอนุมัติจากครม.

ทั้งนี้ หากทั้งสองโครงการเดินหน้าเปิดประมูลได้ก็จะทำให้ backlog ของผู้รับเหมารายใหญ่มี upside อีก 1.542 แสนล้านบาท ซึ่งเราคาดว่าไม่ CK ( บมจ.ช.การช่าง ) ก็ STEC (บมจ.ซิโน-ไทย เอ็นจีเนียริ่งแอนด์คอนสตรัคชั่น ) น่าจะได้ backlog 9 หมื่นล้านบาท จากโครงการรถไฟฟ้าสายสีส้มตะวันตก  ถ้าหาก CK ได้ backog ใหม่เพิ่มจากโครงการนี้ก็จะทำให้ยอด backlog เพิ่มขึ้นสามเท่า แต่หาก STEC ได้ก็จะทำให้ bckiog เพิ่มขึ้นเท่าตัว

เลื่อนประมูลโครงการรถไฟฟ้าตายสีแดงไปปีหน้า

กระทรวงคมนาคมตัดสินใจเปลี่ยนรูปแบบการลงทุนโครงการรถไฟฟ้าสายสีแดงจากการประมูลงานโยธามาเป็นแบบ PPPประกอบด้วย สายสีแดงเข้ม (รังสิต- ธรรมศาสตร์) สายสีแดงอ่อน (ตลิ่งชัน-ศาลาขา) สายสีแดงอ่อน (ตลิ่งชัน-ศิริราช) mising link (บางชื่อ-พญาไทมักกะสัน) และส่วนที่มีการปรับแบบ ทั้งนี้ รฟท. กำลังศึกษาการใช้แนวทาง PPP กับโครงการนี้ ซึ่งคาดว่าจะใช้เวลา 3-4 เดือน ต้องใช้วลาอย่างน้อย 6 เดือนกว่าที่กระทรวงคมนาคม และคณะกรรมการ PPP จะพิจารณาเสร็จ คาดว่าโครงการนี้จะออก TOR ได้ในครึ่งหลังของปี 64

อย่างไรก็ดีคาดว่าผลประกอบการกลุ่มรับเหมาก่อสร้างจะฟื้นตัวขึ้นในครึ่งปีหลัง เนื่องจาก) CK พลิกจากขาดทุนสุทธิมาเป็นกำไรสุทธิ เนื่องจาก BEM จะได้อานิสงส์จากการผ่อนคลายมาตรการ lockdown และเป็นช่วง peak ตามฤดูกาลของ CK และ อัตรากำไรขั้นต้นโดยรวมของ STEC เพิ่มขึ้นเนื่องจากมีรายได้จากการก่อสร้างโครงการโรงไฟฟ้า โรงไฟฟ้า GULF ปลวกแดงซึ่งจะเริ่มก่อสร้างใน Q3/63

ยังคงให้น้ำหนักหุ้นกลุ่มรับเหมาก่อสร้างที่ Neutral และขยับไปใช้ราคาเป้าหมายกลางปี 2564 โดยเลือก STEC (เป้าหมาย19.20 บาท )เป็นหุ้นเด่นในกลุ่มเนื่องจาก backlog เมื่อสิ้นงวด Q1/63 สูงถึง 3 หมื่นล้านบาท และยังมี backlog ที่จะเพิ่มเข้ามาอีกจากเฟสแรกของโครงการเมืองสนามบินอู่ตะเภา (2 หมื่นล้นบาท) รถไฟฟ้าสีชมพูสายต่อขยาย ( 2 พันล้นบาท) และงาน O&M มอเตอร์เวย์ ( 5 -6 พันล้าบาท) ขณะที่ CK ยังคงแนะถือ (Neutral ) ราคาเป้าหมายที่ 26.50 บาท

 

ขอบคุณที่มาเนื้อหาข้อมูลจาก


2 comments
maruferd 2 months ago on Thu 21 Oct, 2021 16:21 / 2 months ago


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