Wed 7 Aug, 2019 12:32 / 2 years ago
แก้ไขล่าสุด: Wed 7 Aug, 2019 12:32 / 2 years ago

Basis สะท้อน 2 อย่างนะครับ

1.ในส่วนราคาทางทฤษฏี

โดยอ้างอิงกับปัจจัย 2 อย่าง คือ ดอกเบี้ย กับ เงินปันผล อธิบายรายละเอียด ดังนี้

- ในส่วนของดอกเบี้ย จะให้ผลลัพธ์ในทิศทาง + (Premium) หมายถึง จะเป็นผลทำให้ ราคา Futures สูงกว่าสินทรัพย์อ้างอิง เนื่องจาก Futures เขามีข้อได้เปรียบจาก "เงินส่วนเกิน" ที่เป็นส่วนต่างระหว่าง การซื้อสินทรัพย์จริง กับ การวางประกัน 10% ดังนั้น

เพื่อไม่ให้มีการได้เปรียบเสียเปรียบกันของเงินส่วนนี้ ราคา Futures จึงต้องให้ "Premium" ชดเชย โดยสังเกตได้จากสินค้าอย่าง ทองคำ ที่มักมีราคาซื้อขายสูงกว่า ราคาทองจริงเสมอ

โดยสามารถประเมินผลกระทบอย่างง่ายได้จาก

ดอกเบี้ยปราศจากความเสี่ยง x ราคาหุ้น x เวลาคงเหลือ/365 x %สัดส่วนของเงินสดส่วนเกิน

เช่น 0.008 x 1092 x 51/365 x 0.95 = +1.12 จุด โดยประมาณ

- ต่อมาคือส่วนของเงินปันผล เนื่องจาก Futures เขารู้ว่า ถ้าหุ้นปันผล เขาไม่จะไม่ได้ผลประโยชน์จากเงินปันผลด้วย และที่สำคัญ การปันผลไป Dilute ให้สินทรัพย์อ้างอิงราคาลดลง !! ดังนั้น เพื่อให้ไม่ให้เกิดความได้เปรียบเสียเปรียบ พวกเขาเลยต้องทำราคาให้ Discount ลงมาล่วงหน้า โดยในส่วนนี้ สามารถหาค่าได้จาก

การดูว่าหุ้นตัวไหนที่มี XD ในช่วง "ก่อน" หมดอายุของสัญญา และเอาเงินปันผลต่อหุ้นมาประมาณค่าดูว่า คิดกลับมาเป็นผลต่อดัชนีกี่จุด

ตัวอย่างเช่น สมมุติ เรารู้ว่า ADVANC กำลังปันผล 3 บาท โดย ADVANC ส่งผลต่อดัชนี บาทละ 0.1 แปลว่า ถ้าวัน XD ราคา ADVANC ลงมา 3 บาทจริง จะส่งผลให้ดัชนีถูกกดลงมา 0.3 จุดด้วย

ดงันั้น Futures เลยทำการ Trade Discount ไว้ 0.3 จุดตั้งแต่แรก โดยเราจะต้องทำทุกตัวที่มีผลกระทบเหล่านี้ เพื่อ Sum รวมว่า Discount กี่จุด แต่โดยรวมแล้ว มากกว่า ผลกระทบจากดอกเบี้ยแน่นอน ดังนั้น เลย Trade Discount เสมอสำหรับตัว SET50 Futures ส่วนทอง เขาไม่มีปันผลให้ ดังนั้นจึงมีแต่ Effect ของดอกเบี้ย ทำให้เขา Trade Premium เสมอ

ส่วนเหตผลที่ 2 คือ "มุมมองความ Bias ของนักลงทุน"

ไอสิ่งที่กล่าวไปทั้งหมด มันถูกต้องที่ทางทฤษฏี พูดง่าย ๆ ถ้าเอาไปสอบคงได้คะแนนเต็ม ... แต่ในทางปฏิบัติ

"ราคา ไม่เท่ากับ มูลค่า"

โดยราคาขึ้นอยู่กับ Demand Supply ต่อให้พวกเรารู้ว่ามูลค่าเป็นเท่าไหร่ แต่ในระยะสั้นถ้านักลงทัน มี Demand หรือ Supply ฝั่งใดฝั่งหนึ่งมากกว่า ก็จะทำให้ราคาเบี่ยงจากทฤษฏีไปทางนั้น

อย่างกรณีปัจจุบัน หากเราคำนวนราคาทฤษฏีออกมาได้ -3 จุด กล่าวคือ Futures ควรมีราคาต่ำกว่าสินทรัพย์อ้างอิง 3 จุด

แต่หากตอนนั้นสภาวะตลาดมันลบมากก นักลงทุนก็พร้อม เปิด Short มากกว่า Long จึงทำให้ Basis ลงไปเป็น -8 ,-9

 

Credit : https://www.facebook.com/tfexforfuture 

ใครสนใจแบ่งปันความรู้มาร่วมพูดคุยกันได้ทาง Open Chat (Line square) : TFEX For Future 


3 comments
Bajang17 2 years ago on Wed 7 Aug, 2019 13:14 / 2 years ago
S2M Silver Member

สมัยไอ้กันใช้ QE มันก็ลากเบสิสไว้ราวบวก 11-12  ขาขึ้นนะครับ

ตอนหยุด QE มันก็กดไว้ลบ 11 โดยประมาณ 

มาวันนี้ - 8 ถึง -9 ไม่ต้องบอกก็รู้นะว่ายังไงต่อไป

รอบนี้ รายยุ่ย Long 73K สวนกับ บักสีดา   แต่บักสีดา Short มา 112K สัญญา ที่เหลือก็ขาใหญ่รับไว้

ณ วันนี้ดัชนีลงมาเทส -100 จุดไปแล้ว ไม่ต้องบอกก็รู้ว่าใครต้องหาเงินมาเติมทุกวัน ถ้า UTWeek พังด้วยความเคารพจะมีคนต้องออกจากตลาดอีกเพียบ ถ้าไม่คัทลอสกันที่ 1650

แชร์ๆ กันครับ อยากให้รายย่อยอยู่แบบคงกระพัน

 

ปล. ไม่นับรวม SSF ตลาดนี้รายใหญ่เล่น Block trade กัน ผมไม่ค่อยได้ตามแต่รู้ว่า รอบนี้เขาชิงขายหุ้นออกมาก่อนแถว1740 มาตลอดทางแถมถัว Short มาแบบระฆังคว่ำ ไว้กว่า 500K อันนี้ถ้าเดาไม่ผิดก็น่าจะทยอยปิดกันไปบ้างแล้วเช่น PTG JAS เฉลี่ยอาทิตย์ละตัว

สรุป อยู่ที่หรั่ง แต่ภาพใหญ่ก็คือ SWD TFDay

TFEXFORFUTURE 2 years ago on Wed 7 Aug, 2019 14:52 / 2 years ago
ขอบคุณสำหรับการแบ่งปันข้อมูลดีๆครับผม
maruferd 2 months ago on Thu 21 Oct, 2021 16:21 / 2 months ago


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