KBANK ส่องศก.ไทย

Tue 23 Feb, 2021 19:18 / 1 year ago

KBANK ส่องศก.ไทยเริ่มฟื้น ส่งออก ม.ค.บวกต่อเนื่อง

ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย ชี้เศรษฐกิจเริ่มฟื้นตัว ส่งออกม.ค.บวกต่อเนื่อง 6.3%

    ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทย ระบุว่า เศรษฐกิจโลกเริ่มฟื้นตัวในทิศทางที่ดีขึ้น ส่งผลให้ตัวเลขส่งออกในเดือนม.. 2564 ขยายตัวเป็นบวกได้ต่อเนื่องจากเดือนก่อน และเมื่อหักทองคำออกขยายตัวในระดับสูงที่ร้อยละ 6.3

    ซึ่งเป็นการสะท้อนความต้องการสินค้าส่งออกไทยที่มากขึ้น โดยเฉพาะชิ้นส่วนอุปกรณ์รถยนต์ที่พลิกกลับมาขยายตัวได้ในระดับสูงที่ร้อยละ 18.8 YoY จากที่หดตัวร้อยละ 0.2 ในเดือนธ.. 63

 ในขณะที่สินค้าที่เกี่ยวข้องกับการทำงานที่บ้าน และเครื่องใช้ไฟฟ้ายังขยายตัวได้ดีต่อเนื่อง โดยเฉพาะโทรศัพท์และอุปกรณ์ที่โตต่อเนื่องเป็นเดือนที่ 7 ตามพฤติกรรมผู้บริโภคที่เปลี่ยนแปลงไป

 ตลาดส่งออกหลักของไทยขยายตัวได้ดีเป็นผลมาจากสถานการณ์การแพร่ระบาดของโควิด-19 ที่เริ่มมีทิศทางที่ดีขึ้น ยกเว้นสหภาพยุโรป ซึ่งเป็นผลสืบเนื่องมาจากการกระจายวัคซีนโควิด-19 ที่ได้มีการแจกจ่ายไปแล้ว 92 ประเทศทั่วโลก

รวมถึงการฉีดวัคซีนในหลายประเทศเป็นไปในอัตราที่เร็วกว่าคาด ส่งผลให้จำนวนผู้ติดเชื้อรายวันลดลงอย่างมีนัยสำคัญ ในขณะที่ความเชื่อมั่นของประชาชนเริ่มกลับมา

      นอกจากนี้ ในหลายประเทศยังมีมาตรการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจออกมาอย่างต่อเนื่องโดยเฉพาะสหรัฐฯ ที่จะมีมาตรการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจขนาดใหญ่อีก 1.9 ล้านล้านเหรียญสหรัฐฯ ออกมา เป็นการสนับสนุนการฟื้นตัวของเศรษฐกิจหลักของโลกในปีนี้  ทำให้การส่งออกของไทยได้รับอานิสงส์ไปด้วย

      โดยในเดือนม.. 2564 นี้ การส่งออกไปยังตลาดสหรัฐฯ ขยายตัวเพิ่มขึ้นร้อยละ 12.4 YoY และญี่ปุ่นที่ขยายตัวได้ร้อยละ 7.4 YoY นอกจากนี้ การส่งออกไปในประเทศ CLMV สามารถพลิกกลับมาเป็นบวกในได้รอบ 10 เดือนโดยขยายตัวที่ร้อยละ 3.8 YoY จากหดตัวที่ร้อยละ 6.3 YoY โดยการส่งออกไปในประเทศเวียดนามเติบโตสูงมากที่ร้อยละ20.1 YoY

อย่างไรก็ตาม ตัวเลขส่งออกในเดือนม.. 2564 ยังเป็นระดับที่ต่ำกว่าในภูมิภาคและต่ำกว่าตลาดคาดการณ์ที่ร้อยละ 2.7 จากช่วงเดียวกันปีก่อน

      ส่วนหนึ่งการส่งออกของไทยยังได้รับปัจจัยกดดันจากการขาดแคลนตู้สินค้า และค่าระวางเรือที่สูงขึ้น ซึ่งปัญหาดังกล่าวมีแนวโน้มเป็นปัญหาต่อเนื่องไปถึงสิ้นปีนี้หรือต้นปีหน้า

     ดังนั้นแม้ว่าจะมีความต้องการสินค้าของไทยแต่หากขาดแคลนตู้คอนเทนเนอร์ก็อาจเป็นปัญหาต่อผู้ส่งออกของไทยและอาจเสียโอกาสในการส่งออกสินค้าไปได้ ขณะที่เงินบาทยังมีแนวโน้มแข็งค่าต่อเนื่อง

     โดยคาดว่าค่าเงินบาทของไทยจะอยู่ที่ 29-29.25 ในสิ้นปีนี้ ซึ่งแนวโน้มค่าเงินบาทที่แข็งค่าและมีความผันผวนมากขึ้นย่อมมีผลกระทบต่อการส่งออก ซึ่งประเด็นดังกล่าว ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทยได้ประเมินเข้าไว้ในการประมาณการส่งออกของไทยในปี 2564 ที่คาดว่าจะขยายตัวร้อยละ 3.0 แล้ว

 ในขณะที่ปัจจัยหนุนเพิ่มเติมจากการฟื้นตัวของเศรษฐกิจโลกที่ดีกว่าที่ประเมิน รวมถึงราคาน้ำมันดิบที่ปรับตัวสูงขึ้นจะมีผลบวกมายังราคาการส่งออกน้ำมันสำเร็จรูปของไทย ส่งผลให้แนวโน้มการส่งออกของไทยในช่วงที่เหลือของปี 2564 จะขยายตัวเป็นบวกได้สูงกว่าที่ศูนย์วิจัยกสิกรไทยประเมินไว้ที่ร้อยละ 3.0

 

ขอบคุณที่มาเนื้อหาข้อมูลจาก


2 comments
maruferd 8 months ago on Sat 23 Oct, 2021 15:09 / 8 months ago
0
Votes
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maruferd 8 months ago on Sat 23 Oct, 2021 15:14 / 8 months ago

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